High tension between Mediobanca and Mps. The banking risk game is heating up with a bitter confrontation between Alberto Nagel and Luigi Lovaglio. As a result of a complex puzzle, Mps’s offer for Mediobanca failed to convince Piazzetta Cuccia, who, in turn, launched a public takeover bid (OPA) for Banca Generali. Each of the two contenders challenges the other’s actions, triggering the conflict. Nagel, CEO of Mediobanca, maintains that “the best transactions for Mps are with other commercial banks, to expand its size and market share. Otherwise, significant dissynergies are generated.”
Banking Risk: The Clash between Mps and Mediobanca
Siena’s takeover bid, in his opinion, “presents numerous risk factors,” since Montepaschi “is a medium-sized, poorly differentiated commercial bank; a merger with Mediobanca would not strengthen the positioning of the individual institutions.” Lovaglio responds critically, maintaining that after the MPS takeover bid, “Mediobanca woke up.” However, he asserts, the offer for Banca Generali “is not an obstacle to our operation,” although he doubts its effects: “The financial benefits of the exchange offer for Banca Generali for Mediobanca shareholders seem less evident; it is true that the transaction consumes capital.” In his opinion, the transaction “seems neutral, if not negative, in terms of earnings per share.”
This is why he is relaunching the MPS takeover bid, which, in his opinion, could give “life to a major new player in the Italian banking system.” But he also responds directly to Nagel: “I want to thank the CEO of Mediobanca for his suggestions on what is best for MPS. We are now fully operational and can carry out our transformation operation, which requires vision, skills, and the ability to execute.” “This is not a power play,” but rather a project for “a stronger business,” he asserts. Intertwined Accounts
Yesterday was a day of reckoning for all the protagonists in this puzzle. In the nine months of the 2024-2025 financial year, Mediobanca recorded revenues of €2.77 billion (up 5% with growth across all businesses) and net profit that increased by 5% to €993 million. Nagel thus relaunches the merger with Banca Generali, with the aim of creating a leader in wealth management, a benchmark in the Italian and European financial landscape. For its part, Mps also celebrates results that exceeded expectations: in the first quarter of 2025, net profit was €413 million (up 24.2%). In this case, too, the accounts allow us to decisively confirm the offer for Mediobanca. And then, the third player in the fray, Banca Generali. Its CEO, Gian Maria Mossa, comments on Mediobanca’s offer, stating that it “could make sense” from an industrial perspective.